Brent crude traded at $109.78 a barrel on Monday, down 1.72% on the day but still well above the $100 threshold it has held for weeks, as the extended conflict involving Iran keeps traders on edge about the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil has traded in a wide band through October, with some sessions pushing toward resistance near $110 before pulling back. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned that Brent could stay above $100 through the rest of 2026 if disruption around the strait — through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — drags on much longer, a forecast that has repeatedly been tested as the broader conflict involving Iran has flared and subsided since early in the year.
A market still pricing in risk
The current plateau is a far cry from the panic levels seen when the conflict first escalated, when Brent briefly touched above $126 a barrel and U.S. benchmark WTI approached $120. Prices have retreated sharply from those peaks but have struggled to fall back toward the mid-$80s levels many forecasters expected before the fighting began, underscoring how much of a persistent risk premium is now baked into oil markets.
Gasoline prices in the United States have followed crude higher, with pump prices setting an October record even as the volatility makes forecasting difficult heading into the November midterm elections, where fuel costs have become a political flashpoint. President Trump has said he expects prices to ease as his administration's energy policies take hold, while acknowledging costs remain "temporarily high."
What would bring prices down
Traders are watching for any sign of a durable de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, which would be the clearest path to prices retreating toward the mid-$80s range some analysts still consider oil's fair value absent the conflict. Until then, Monday's dip looks more like day-to-day noise than a turn in the broader trend.