China's economy grew 4.5% in the three months to the end of September, accelerating from the previous quarter as a boom in artificial-intelligence-related exports helped offset a deepening slump in the property market, official data released Monday showed.
The figure, reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics, sits at the bottom end of Beijing's annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% and remains below the 5% expansion recorded in the first quarter. The bureau said the economy had "sustained steady development against pressure" and was showing "momentum with new growth drivers and improving structure."
Exports Carry the Load
With exports climbing, China's trade surplus is on track to exceed last year's record of $1.2 trillion. Sales of high-tech goods rose 14.3% from a year earlier, while production of batteries and industrial robots each grew by more than 29%, according to the official figures. Global demand for computer chips and other components used in AI data centres has been a central driver, cushioning the blow from weak spending at home.
"Manufacturing and high-tech exports have boosted China's growth, despite weak investment and domestic spending," said Sheana Yue, a researcher at Oxford Economics. Property investment, by contrast, fell more than 20% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2025, extending a slump now running for years after a wave of overbuilding and heavy borrowing by private developers. Yue said trade tensions and broader geopolitical uncertainty have also left Chinese consumers more "pessimistic" and reluctant to spend.
Dave Chia, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said the effects of a raft of support measures Beijing unveiled in September — including lower interest rates for some businesses and subsidies for property buyers — have yet to show up in the data. He flagged China's growing reliance on "a single external engine" in exports as a risk going forward, particularly as Western governments push back.
The United States and European Union have both moved to shield domestic manufacturers from a surge of inexpensive Chinese goods, and investors remain divided over whether the billions of dollars flowing into AI infrastructure worldwide — much of it tied to Chinese-made components — will ultimately generate the profits companies have promised. For Beijing, the quarter's growth offers breathing room, but not yet proof that the economy has found a durable second engine to replace its ailing property sector.
