Copper prices are hovering near record highs just as a labor dispute at the world's largest copper mine threatens to tighten supply further, adding a new source of volatility to a market already distorted by anticipated U.S. tariffs.
Comex copper futures touched an all-time high of $6.83 a pound on Sept. 22, while the London Metal Exchange hit an intraday record of $14,833 a ton the following day before easing back, according to market data reviewed by Mining.com. Copper is up roughly 18% for the year.
A Strike Vote at Escondida
The price pressure comes as Sindicato N°2, the union representing more than 1,000 supervisors and staff at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile's Atacama Desert, holds a strike vote from Sept. 28 through Sept. 30 after rejecting the company's final wage offer. Union leader Alexis Barrera said the proposal was missing "essential elements," pointing to disputes over task-based work requirements and a proposed 14-days-on, 14-days-off shift rotation, according to a Kitco News report. The union's current contract expires Sept. 30. If members vote to strike, Chilean labor law requires five days of mandatory government mediation, extendable by five more days, before any walkout could begin.
Escondida is the single largest copper-producing mine in the world, and any disruption there would compound a rally that has been driven more by trade policy than by a genuine supply shortage. The U.S. Commerce Department has recommended a tariff of 15% on refined copper imports starting Jan. 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, on top of Section 232 duties of up to 50% already in effect on semi-finished copper products since April. The White House had not confirmed or rejected the refined-copper tariff as of late September, and the uncertainty has driven a wave of metal into U.S. warehouses ahead of a possible deadline, leaving Comex holding an outsized share of global exchange inventories while London and Shanghai stocks have thinned.
A large flow of metal is moving into the US in anticipation of tariffs being imposed there on refined copper.
Alice Fox, metals analyst, Macquarie
Analysts caution that despite the record prices, there is no acute global shortage of copper; the rally instead reflects a geographic mismatch between where metal is stored and where it may eventually be needed, layered on top of structural demand growth from data centers and the power grid. A strike at Escondida would not immediately change that underlying picture, but traders are watching the vote closely given the mine's outsized share of global output and the tight timing with its expiring labor contract.
