Crude oil extended its longest winning streak in months on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate rising for a sixth consecutive session as attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure disrupted supply and rattled shipping through one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Brent crude climbed above $97 a barrel, its strongest level since late July, before pushing toward $99 as the week progressed, according to OilPrice.com's reporting on the escalation.
The latest flashpoint is Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery, a 400,000-barrel-per-day facility in the country's southwest that has now been struck twice since August. No group has claimed responsibility, though Houthi forces have repeatedly targeted the site since fighting with Saudi Arabia resumed over the summer. Shipments from Jizan reportedly fell to zero in August following the first attack, underscoring how vulnerable a single facility can leave regional supply.
A rerouted map for Saudi crude
The refinery's Red Sea location has taken on outsized strategic importance as Saudi Arabia shifts more of its crude exports westward through the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu, a route designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely amid the broader Iran conflict. That rerouting has made Red Sea-facing infrastructure like Jizan a more attractive target even as it reduces the kingdom's reliance on the strait.
Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser sought to reassure markets after the earlier August strike, saying the damage caused only temporary interruptions with no material operational or financial impact on the company. Traders have been less sanguine about a second strike in as many months.
Compounding the pressure, Iran has proposed asserting control over a new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz following a weekend of clashes that included U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian missile fire aimed at American warships. Hormuz normally carries more than a fifth of global oil supply; transit volumes through it have fallen sharply as shippers reroute or wait out the risk.
Diverging forecasts
Wall Street's commodity desks are split on how far the rally can run. Goldman Sachs has warned Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if Persian Gulf flows stay depressed, while Bank of America has floated $150 as a tail-risk scenario in the event of a broader regional war. HSBC has taken a more measured view, projecting a base case near $95 through the end of the year assuming the conflict does not widen further.
For now, energy traders say the market is pricing a genuine supply risk premium rather than a confirmed shortfall — but each new strike on Saudi infrastructure narrows the margin for error heading into the winter demand season.
