Kalshi has closed a $1 billion funding round led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management that values the prediction-market platform at $40 billion, roughly double the $22 billion valuation it carried after a Series F round just six months ago.
The company says its annualized revenue outside of sports contracts already exceeds $1 billion, while total annualized revenue topped $4 billion in July, a figure boosted heavily by contracts tied to the World Cup. Kalshi is regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission but is simultaneously fighting several state regulators that are trying to ban prediction markets outright, arguing the contracts amount to unlicensed gambling under state law.
A crowded, contested market
The company's chief executive has confirmed preliminary discussions about an initial public offering, possibly as early as 2027, though no date has been set. Kalshi's rapid rise has intensified competition with Polymarket, its main rival, which was last valued near $15 billion in April and is reportedly seeking new funding at a valuation above $20 billion.
The regulatory fight is likely to shape how far either platform can grow in the U.S. The CFTC's position — that federally regulated event contracts preempt conflicting state gambling law — has so far held up in court, but several states are pursuing fresh legal challenges, and the outcome could determine whether prediction markets become a permanent fixture of U.S. financial life or remain confined to a patchwork of states that tolerate them.
