Democrats have opened their largest advantage yet in the fight for control of Congress, according to polling released this week, with President Trump's approval rating sliding to 39 percent five weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
An average of recent surveys compiled by NBC News found registered voters favoring the Democratic candidate in their district over the Republican by 52 percent to 43 percent, a nine-point edge. A separate national survey conducted September 14-15 by the Marist Poll, in partnership with PBS News, put the Democratic lead even wider, at 53 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, with independents favoring Democrats by 25 points.
Independents move away from the president
Trump's overall approval rating has fallen from 50 percent at the start of his term to 39 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, the NBC average found. Marist recorded 53 percent of respondents saying they "strongly disapprove" of his performance, the highest such share the pollster has measured across either of his terms. Independents were particularly unfavorable: just 26 percent approved of the president's job performance in the NBC average, and Marist found only 12 percent of independents were motivated to vote in order to support Trump, compared with 54 percent motivated to vote against him.
Democrats also held advantages on specific issues among independents, leading by 19 points on the economy, 26 points on gas prices and 22 points on foreign policy, according to the Marist survey. Trump's approval on handling inflation and the cost of living has fallen from 40 percent in April 2025 to 32 percent in April 2026.
The Democrats are sitting in a very good place. There's a lot of grumbling in the electorate.
Lee Miringoff, director, Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Democratic strategist Joel Payne called the erosion in independent support "devastating" for Republican candidates, while GOP strategist Melik Abdul likened the president's standing to Icarus flying too close to the sun. Both parties are now pouring money into media markets in the handful of districts expected to decide the chamber.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the House majority, while Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats and hold on. Party strategists cautioned that national averages do not always predict individual races, but both sides are racing to lock down contested districts in states including Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire before Election Day on November 3.
