US consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in September, the government reported this week, the highest inflation reading ahead of a midterm election, excluding the pandemic, since 1990 — a finding compounded Thursday by a new poll showing voters growing markedly more pessimistic about the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices climbed from 3.4% in August and marked the sharpest pace since a three-year peak of 4.2% in May. Gasoline, which rose 34% from a year earlier, accounted for more than half of the overall increase; home heating oil jumped 74%, a troubling sign for households heading into winter, and air fares rose 22.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, ticked up to 2.6% annually. Economists and officials attribute much of the surge to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, which has driven energy costs sharply higher; Brown University researchers estimate the conflict has cost the average American household more than $1,020 this year, and $133 billion in total.
A sour mood heading into November
A Harris poll conducted for the Guardian found three-quarters of Americans are concerned about a recession, and 61% incorrectly believe the country is already in one. Independent voters — seen as decisive in many swing races — have soured sharply: 65% now say the economy is worse, up from 48% who said so in September 2024. Even Republican optimism has collapsed. In February 2026, just before the war with Iran began, 49% of Republicans said the economy was improving; in the new poll, just 28% do. Two-thirds of those surveyed said gas and grocery prices would be the most important factor in their vote next month, ahead of healthcare costs and foreign affairs.
The findings track with a AAA gas-price tracker showing pump prices still running well above year-ago levels nationwide, and with a Reuters/Ipsos survey that found 78% of Americans, including 57% of Republicans, blame the Trump administration's policies for inflation outpacing their wages. Democratic candidates have seized on the numbers; in Texas's closely watched Senate race, candidate James Talarico has run a campaign ad holding a bag of groceries, saying, "Too many Texans feel like they're drowning — the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare."
Trump has sought to shift blame for the price increases onto Iran and, this week, onto Houthi rebels he said were attacking Saudi Arabia to drive up oil prices before the vote. Speaking at a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, he defended his record, saying his support for American families had been "substantial." "Every time they want to try and get me, they say 'affordability,'" he said. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last month for the first time since 2023, citing elevated prices, pushing the average 30-year mortgage rate to 7.40% — adding another squeeze for voters just three weeks before they decide control of Congress on Nov. 3.
