Eritrean troops who crossed into Ethiopia's Tigray region came under drone attack from Ethiopian government forces this week, raising fears that a reignited internal conflict in Ethiopia could spiral into a full regional war between the two neighbors. Military vehicles carrying Eritrean soldiers drove across the border into Tigray on Wednesday and reached the town of Adigrat, about 25 miles south of the frontier, according to civilian witnesses, a militia commander and the conflict-monitoring group Acled, which said the troops were then targeted by Ethiopian drones on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
At least two witnesses told Reuters they saw "dozens" of Eritrean soldiers drive through Adigrat in two trucks, identifiable by their off-white camouflage uniforms, in reporting carried by Al Jazeera. Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Ghebremeskel, did not deny troops had crossed the border but accused Ethiopia of "a fallacious narrative of 'self-defense' to rationalise and camouflage its war of aggression." Gebreigziabher Beyene, commander of the pro-government Tigray Peace Force, said Eritrea was "deliberately deploying its forces so that the fighting takes place inside Tigray rather than spilling into Eritrea." Reuters said it could not independently verify the troop-movement accounts.
A fragile web of rivalries
The Tigray People's Liberation Front launched an offensive against Ethiopia's federal government on September 23, and the TPLF and six other armed groups have since fought government forces in Tigray and the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Ethiopia's military and an allied militia retook Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle, on October 4 after the TPLF withdrew. Eritrea, which has a long historical enmity with the TPLF, intervened on Ethiopia's side in the brutal 2020-2022 civil war, in which between 300,000 and 800,000 civilians died, according to British government estimates. But analysts say that old alliance has frayed as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — the 2019 Nobel peace laureate — has pushed for Ethiopia to gain access to the Red Sea, including a claim to Eritrea's port of Assab, a demand Eritrea sees as an existential threat.
Eritrea announced Thursday it was severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia entirely, after Addis Ababa said it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. Ethiopia's foreign ministry said this week it "stands ready to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and core national interests," while urging regional actors to pursue "constructive dialogue" rather than "confrontation." Ethiopia has separately accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of backing the armed alliance fighting its government; all three countries deny the allegation.
"The big worry is that [Abiy] might try to solve all his problems at the same time, by invading Eritrea, possibly a regime change move and also a land grab for the Red Sea port, and also solving his problem with Tigray at the same time. It's a very ambitious military agenda."
Magnus Taylor, Horn of Africa deputy director, Crisis Group
The renewed fighting has already produced reports of the TPLF forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15, and aid workers warn civilians in Tigray, Amhara and Afar have had little time to recover from the earlier war. "They just started healing recently," said Acled analyst Jalale Getachew Birru. With Eritrean forces reportedly now inside Ethiopia and diplomatic ties between the two governments severed, mediators face a narrowing window to stop the conflict widening further.
