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Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil, Overturning First-Round Defeat to Beat a Bolsonaro Son

The 80-year-old leftist overturned a first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 3.6 points, as world leaders hail a result that bucks the region's rightward drift.

Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil, Overturning First-Round Defeat to Beat a Bolsonaro Son
— Flag of Brazil. Wikimedia Commons, public domain (official state symbol).
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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as Brazil's president on Sunday, completing a comeback that election-law experts called historic after he trailed in the first round of voting earlier this month.

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court gave Lula 51.79% of the runoff vote to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro — a margin of about 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro had led after the first round of voting on October 4, when neither candidate reached the outright majority needed to avoid a runoff.

A deeply divided electorate

Addressing cheering supporters in São Paulo, Lula, who turns 81 two days after the election, said the result was a "defeat of lies" and credited voters with "defending Brazilian democracy." But with more than 48% of the country backing his opponent, Brazilian media outlets described the win as a historic turnaround rather than a decisive mandate. Bolsonaro refused to concede, telling supporters outside his home in Brasília that the outcome was "impossible" and "inexplicable," and calling for the vote to be annulled after the Supreme Court extended voting hours by two hours at both campaigns' request. Electoral-law experts told the BBC's Brazilian service that annulment was unlikely given Lula's margin of victory.

Lula will now govern alongside what analysts describe as the most right-wing Congress of Brazil's democratic era, a legislature elected in the same cycle as a presidency that swung the other way. Before the vote he promised "a new way of governing" to bridge the gap between the country's opposing political poles, though he offered few specifics.

World leaders react

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Lula, saying "democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil," while French President Emmanuel Macron said the two countries had "much to build together." Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called it a "great victory" for "the comeback of global progressivism." India's Narendra Modi said he looked forward to "working closely" with the incoming government. The reactions underscored how closely the vote was watched beyond Brazil's borders, in a region where several neighboring countries have swung toward the right in recent elections.

An Amazon record, and a legacy still being written

The result arrived alongside data from Brazil's national space agency, INPE, showing Amazon deforestation at its lowest level on record: roughly 3,335 square kilometers cleared in the year to July, 42% less than the year before. Jair Bolsonaro's administration, by contrast, oversaw nearly 45,600 square kilometers of clearing against about 24,600 square kilometers under Lula's prior terms, according to INPE figures, though environmental groups caution the slowdown does not mean deforestation has stopped.

Lula first served as president from 2003 to 2010, leaving office with approval ratings above 80% after a cash-transfer program that lifted millions out of poverty, before a corruption conviction jailed him for 18 months. Those convictions were annulled in 2021, clearing the way for his 2022 comeback against Jair Bolsonaro. He will be 85 at the end of this term — a fact his own party is acutely aware of, even as it endorsed him for a fourth run.

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Ingrid Solheim · Nordic & Arctic Correspondent

Covers the Arctic, the Nordics and the politics of the far north for UBStandard — shipping lanes, energy and climate at the top of the map.

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