Copper surged to an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange this week, with three-month futures climbing as much as 0.8% to $14,533 a ton, topping the previous record set in January. The metal has now risen more than 68% since April 2025, a run that predates the current burst of speculation but has accelerated sharply in recent weeks.
On the Comex, September-delivery copper touched $6.7775 a pound — roughly $14,940 a tonne — a fresh all-time high on the US exchange. The rally has been driven in large part by traders positioning for the White House to expand tariffs on imported refined copper, under a Section 232 national-security investigation that has produced proposals for duties starting near 15% in January 2027 and rising toward 30% by 2028. The Commerce Department's report to the White House is now roughly two months overdue.
Supply Squeeze Meets Structural Demand
The tariff expectations have scrambled global trade flows: large volumes of copper that would normally replenish LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have instead been rerouted to US storage facilities, where inventories have swelled into the hundreds of thousands of tons even as stocks elsewhere have thinned. Chilean copper shipments, meanwhile, hit their lowest level in more than a year despite the higher prices on offer.
Mine supply has faltered at the same time. Data from the International Copper Study Group show global output fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, with Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan both posting double-digit production declines. Codelco halted development of the Andes Norte expansion at its El Teniente mine on August 4 over seismic risk, and the state miner's output in the first five months of 2026 ran 27% below the same period a year earlier.
Longer-term demand is adding to the pressure, as data centers, renewable-energy buildout and aging power grids draw on a global mine fleet that analysts say is struggling to keep pace. Antu Eapen Thomas, senior research analyst at Geojit Investments, said tightening market availability, driven by anticipation of US import tariffs, has disrupted global trade flows and reduced inventories on the LME and elsewhere.
Copper's record-breaking surge above $14,500 reflects tightening global supply, accelerating electrification and AI-led grid demand, reinforcing expectations for further fundamentally driven upside despite near-term technical overextension and volatility.
Ajay Kedia, director, Kedia Advisory
Major diversified miners including Rio Tinto, BHP, Glencore and Zijin Mining have already booked sizable profit gains from their copper units this year. Traders are now watching for the overdue Commerce Department report, which could either validate the tariff bet driving prices higher or trigger a sharp reversal if the duties fall short of expectations.
