Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary says European airfares could rise by 10% to 20% next summer if oil prices remain elevated, a conditional warning that has nonetheless been widely read as a signal that cheap European air travel's multi-year run may be ending.
'If oil prices remain this high into summer of 2027, I expect airfares to rise by 10, 15, 20%,' O'Leary said, outlining a scenario tied explicitly to fuel costs rather than predicting the increase outright. In a more extreme long-term scenario, O'Leary suggested that if jet fuel stayed near $140 a barrel for five years, the average fare could climb from around €50 today to €80-90 over six to eight years.
If we hedge next year at 100 dollars a barrel, our oil bill goes up by 25%.
Michael O'Leary, Ryanair chief executive
Ryanair itself is largely insulated for now, with fuel hedges locking in prices near $67 a barrel through March 2027; its exposure rises sharply after that. The airline said it will not introduce fuel surcharges itself, while noting that competitors may choose to do so, and trimmed its fiscal 2027 passenger target from 216 million to 214 million, which O'Leary attributed directly to higher fuel costs.
O'Leary used the moment to repeat a longer-standing prediction that Europe's airline market will consolidate around four major players — Ryanair, British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France — as smaller carriers struggle to absorb higher costs that larger airlines can hedge or spread more easily.
Whether fares actually rise by the top of O'Leary's range depends entirely on where oil prices sit next summer, a variable not even Ryanair's extensive hedging book can fully control. For now, travelers booking summer 2027 trips have no immediate price shock to budget for, but O'Leary's comments add Europe's largest budget airline to a chorus of carriers warning that the era of rock-bottom fares may not last indefinitely.