Reports of attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have reached a record high, according to an analysis of UK Maritime Trade Operations agency data conducted by BBC Verify, even as oil exports from the region have been slowing.
The analysis found 12 vessels were struck in a single week, the highest weekly total the agency, known as UKMTO, has recorded. UKMTO has logged at least one attack a day in either the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. On October 12 alone, four vessels, three oil tankers and a container ship, were struck in the waterways, part of an intensifying pattern of maritime violence in one of the world's most important oil shipping corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz, which separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, is a chokepoint through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil trade passes. The rising frequency of attacks has coincided with a sustained increase in oil prices: Brent crude has been trading above $100 a barrel in recent sessions, roughly in the $102 to $106 range, up sharply from about $73 a barrel before the conflict involving Iran began in late February 2026.
Oil exports under pressure
The intensifying attacks on shipping have come as the region's oil export volumes have been slowing, adding pressure on producers and traders already navigating higher insurance and freight costs tied to the heightened risk. Shipping companies routing tankers through the strait have faced rising war-risk insurance premiums as the frequency of attacks has climbed through the year.
UKMTO, which is run by the UK's Royal Navy and advises commercial shipping on security risks in the region, has continued to issue advisories as the daily drumbeat of attacks has continued. The persistence of the pattern, rather than any single incident, is what analysts say marks the current period as unusually severe compared with earlier spikes in regional tension.
With no resolution to the underlying conflict in sight, shipping operators, insurers and oil traders are likely to keep treating the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden as high-risk zones, a status that typically translates into higher costs passed through the oil and shipping markets. Further records in attack frequency, rather than a let-up, remain the base case cited by analysts tracking the data.
