Grain traders head into Thursday's meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping watching one commodity above all: soybeans, the centerpiece of a fragile agricultural trade truce that is due to expire in November.
Under a framework reached earlier this year, Beijing committed to buying 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, on top of at least $17 billion a year in additional American farm purchases, in exchange for Washington and Beijing each rolling back tariffs imposed during earlier trade disputes. Chinese state buyers had booked roughly 13 million tons of this year's pledge by mid-September, according to trade reporting on the purchase bookings, putting China just over the halfway mark with three months left in the marketing year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net soybean sales of 1.70 million tons for the week ended September 10, with China accounting for 875,300 tons of that total. November soybean futures settled at $13.25½ a bushel on Tuesday, giving back a fraction of Monday's sharp advance, while corn and wheat also eased after posting some of their strongest single-day gains of the year.
Tariffs, Timing and the Harvest
The purchase pledge is tied to a 2025 tariff truce that paused a broader escalation between the two countries and is due to lapse in November, putting pressure on negotiators to extend it during this week's talks. Beijing dropped a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat this summer after Washington lifted its own tariff tied to fentanyl-precursor chemicals, and officials on both sides have signaled openness to further agricultural concessions, including a possible reduction in China's remaining tariff on U.S. liquefied natural gas.
The stakes are rising for American growers just as harvest gets underway: corn cutting is 13% complete and soybean harvest 12% complete, both running ahead of their five-year averages, according to USDA crop-progress data. Farm groups have pressed the administration to lock in firm, enforceable purchase commitments rather than rely on informal pledges, after previous rounds of trade tension left grain in storage with nowhere to go. Traders said any signal from Thursday's meeting on extending the truce, or on new purchase targets, is likely to move futures sharply in either direction before markets close.
